The Grand Slam Poker Source

This is Part II of a two-part article on playing short-stacked in No Limit Texas Hold’em Tournaments, but avoiding getting too short-stacked.  In Part I, I discussed the concept of The Plateau Theory and the Tumble Factor to help measure your chip stack status in a tournament.  In Part II, I will discuss the types of hands that players may have when short-stacked and whether or not they are worthy of playing.  For those of you who have not read Part I, or need a refresher, please take a peek at: Getting Too Short-Stacked - Part I.

In Part I of the two-part series, we discussed The Plateau Theory of viewing your chip stack and a new way to measure the size of your stack in a tournament - the Tumble Factor.  Simply put, the Tumble Factor is:

((Chip Stack / (Big Blind + Small Blind)) - 1) * (Number of Players - 2) = Tumble Factor

That makes it look a lot more complicated than it is.  Let’s look at an example.

With blinds at 200/400, you have a chip stack of 3,600 and 6 players at your table.  Plugging it into the formula:

 ((3,600 / (400+200)) - 1) * (6-2) = 20

More simply put, if you fold every hand for the rest of the tournament, you can play 6 times around the table, but the last time, you will be all-in.  So, you have 5 trips around the table before you lose all of your chips.  Also, there are 4 hands in every circuit around the table that you don’t have pay a blind.  So, 5 times 4 is 20.

So, now that we have a Tumble Factor, what do we do with it?  Well, the Tumble Factor helps us decide how aggressive we need to be with our hand selection.  There are five major zones to the Tumble Factor - I call them the DEFCONs.

For those of you familar with the Unites States Armed Forces (or the movie, WarGames), you are probably familiar with DEFCON.  The defense readiness condition (DEFCON) describes situations of military severity.  Standard peacetime protocol is DEFCON 5 - in poker terms, you have a lot of chips and the blinds are small and you can use whatever strategies and play-types you wish.  On the other end of the spectrum, DEFCON 1 represents expectation of actual imminent attack - in poker terms, you have nothing left and you are going to go to war in the next hand or two.

Of course, are objective is to play at DEFCON 5 as much as possible and avoid DEFCON 1 at all costs, but in most home poker tournaments, we rarely see DEFCON 5.

Let’s take a look at the DEFCONs and their associated Tumble Factors:

• DEFCON 5 - Tumble Factor is 150 or higher
• DEFCON 4 - Tumble Factor is 75-149
• DEFCON 3 - Tumble Factor is 40-74
• DEFCON 2 - Tumble Factor is 10-39
• DEFCON 1 - Tumble Factor is less than 10.

DEFCON 5

You have plenty of play and can choose to play whatever style you wish; however, you still need to recognize that blinds increase quickly in most home poker tournaments.  So, you may be in danger of dropping out of DEFCON 5 quickly.  Your main goal should still be to amass as many chips as possible.  Most home poker tournaments do not allow you to sit back and wait for the nuts, even at DEFCON 5.  Their structures are simply too fast.

DEFCON 4

You still have quite a bit of play, but you can’t play super tight.  You have to open up your hand requirements a bit.  You need to play a few more hands and make a few more calls.  You don’t have to be loose, by any means, but recognize that other players may be aware of the increasing blinds and are making similar adjustments.

Having said that, though, you also need to be aware of hands that will pay off when you hit them and hands that will not pay off.  You need to be more aggressive with hands like AA, KK, AK, and other big hands.  These are the hands that need to make you money when you are lucky enough to get them - they likely dominate your callers.

On the other hand, you don’t have enough chips to warrant a fishing expedition.  Hands like low pairs and suited connectors are normally hands that can pay off huge when you hit them, but you don’t have enough chips to consistently call with them, wait for them to hit, and then hope you get paid off on them when they do hit.  Sure, you can still limp or raise with them in position to try to steal the blinds (and if you get called, you still have a reasonable hand), but you can’t afford to play them without a good reason for doing so.

DEFCON 3

Now it’s time to turn up the aggression.  You can’t be overly picky with your hands.  If you have a reasonable hand and you can be the first one to enter the pot, now is the time.  You don’t want to be doing a lot of calling at this point.  You need to be aggressive, you need to enter the pot first, and you need to raise.  Give yourself every chance to win the pot.

Again, it’s also a good time to look for chances to re-raise or push all-in.  Other players are probably in the same situation as you.  Identify the types of players who are aware of their situation and be prepared to re-raise them when you get a good hand.  If they are truly aware of their situation, they may be playing a less than stellar hand and you can win the pot outright or go to war with a better hand.

DEFCON 2

If you thought you were playing aggressively at DEFCON 3, now is the time to really turn up the speed.  At this point, unless you really go card dead and are getting hands like 42, you don’t even want to get to the Big Blind without pushing all-in before you get there.  However, before you push all-in, consider two things.

First, assess how likely you are to get a better hand before you have to pay the big blind.  If you are very likely to get a better hand before you have to pay a blind, it’s OK to fold here, but be careful of the second consideration.  The closer you get to paying the big blind, the more the players know that you are going to push on any two cards.  Is it really worth passing up Q7 to play Q9 two hands later when you are likely to get more callers because they know you had to push?

Most importantly, don’t let yourself get to the point where you have to pay the big blind more than once or twice and even then, only if it’s absolutely necessary.  There may be situations in which you simply couldn’t get your money into the pot before the big blind came around, but even if you have to make the worst call in the world, sometimes you just have to do that.

You have to consider your chances of winning the tournament with so few chips when you enter the pot.  Sure, your chances of winning the pot may be 20%, but if you don’t push and lose more chips, your chances of winning the tournament may be next to nothing.  You need  to play hands while a double-up can get you a lot closer to DEFCON 3.  What good is doubling up if you are still in the same situation in which you started - having to move all-in at your first opportunity?

DEFCON 1

A lot of players consider this the “any two cards” area.  I don’t - quite.  When you get to DEFCON 1, it’s time to push in most situations, but remember the two considerations:  1) How likely are you to get a better hand before you have to pay a blind?  2) The closer you get to paying the big blind, the more players know that you are going to push on any two cards.  In other words, don’t pass up a marginal hand to play a slightly better marginal hand.

Other than that, there’s not a lot of strategy to DEFCON 1 play.  Obviously, try to avoid this level at all costs.

In summary, it is very important to realize how close you are to elimination and to understand in which DEFCON you are playing; however, you also need to remember that there are exceptions to every rule.  The Plateau Thoery does not take into consideration that you may be on the money bubble (or point bubble for home tournament series) or that finishing one position higher may be a significant increase in pay for you.  It assumes you are playing to win.  So, the play that may be right if you want to win the tournament may not be the play that is right for you.

Also, remember, The Plateau Theory is typically for home tournament use in which antes are not typically a part of the blind structure.

Lastly, I hope The Plateau Theory works for you.  It’s a simple calculation and a bit more precise than simply counting the number of times you can make it around the table.  However, even The Plateau Theory should not be a substitute for using good poker sense and your instincts.  No formula, no matter how precise, should ever be a substitute for using your head and instincts.

Until next time,

KC

Tags: Plateau Theory, Poker, Short Stack, Strategy, Tournaments, Tumble Factor

This entry was posted by KC on Saturday, March 28th, 2009 at 9:50 am and is filed under Math, Poker Articles, Poker Tournaments. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.