A friend of mine sent me an interesting series of questions the other day. There was nothing particularly difficult about any of the questions, but the beauty of them was not so much in the difficulty one might have in answering the questions, but in the thought it provoked when considering no-limit play.
The premise for the first three questions is: Joe is playing in a re-buy tournament in which he will always re-buy if the option is available. He moves all-in on two consecutive hands in which he is a 60/40 pre-flop favorite both times.
Question 1: How often will Joe win both hands?
Question 2: How often will Joe win one of the two hands?
Question 3: How often will Joe lose both hands?
The math for these questions is fairly simple. Joe will win both hands 36% of the time (60% times 60%). Joe will lose both hand 16% of the time (40% times 40%). Therefore, almost half the time, 48% of the time, Joe will win one hand and lose one hand.
This is not something most people think about very often. We always hear, “The best you can do is get your money in as a favorite,” but is that true? If you get your money all-in as a 60% favorite twice, you are going to be out of a freezeout tournament almost two-thirds of the time (64%).
So, what does this mean? Does this mean you can’t play aggressively? Does it mean that you need to avoid all-in situations? Of course, not. You have to play aggressively to win a tournament. Passivity is never the key to victory and you couldn’t avoid getting all-in even if you tried. However, there is a lesson to be learned here.
Maybe you need to pick and choose who you are willing to play against in an aggressive fashion. Who is more likely to take a chance and gamble with you? Maybe you want to avoid them in marginal situations.
Part of the value of an all-in move is fold equity. If possible, pick passive players when feel you need to make a stand - these are the players who are more likely to avoid gambling and will allow you to take down pots with minimal risk.
Of course, all of this is much easier said than done, but it is still food for thought. The next time you move in a couple times and end up getting knocked out as a favorite, think about it. Were you really unlucky since you got your money all-in as the favorite and that is the best you can do? Or, were you taking too many risks with a marginal edge?
Until next time,
KC
Stumble it!
